On April 20, according to CME's 'FedWatch': the probability of the Federal Reserve raising rates by 25 basis points in April is 0%, while the probability of maintaining rates unchanged is 100%. The probability of the Federal Reserve cumulatively lowering rates by 25 basis points by June is 2.5%, with a 97.5% chance of keeping rates unchanged.

On April 21, the Dark Side of the Moon officially launched and open-sourced the new model Kimi K2.6. According to the benchmarks released by the official sources, its coding capabilities match or surpass those of GPT 5.4 and Opus 4.6 (AI Cambrian).

On April 21, Iran's Supreme Leader Mujtaba Khamenei reiterated three fundamental positions, including the demand for 'war reparations,' emphasizing the commitment to safeguarding national interests. Mujtaba's official social media account announced that Iran will hold accountable those responsible for the attacks against it and seek compensation for the damages caused by the conflict, pushing for a new phase in the management of the Strait of Hormuz, while firmly refusing to relinquish its legitimate rights and viewing all 'resistance fronts' in the region as a unified whole. (Xinhua)

On April 21, local time, Iranian Islamic Parliament Speaker Ghalibaf announced that U.S. President Trump, through the implementation of blockades and violations of ceasefire agreements, is "attempting to turn this negotiation table into a surrender table" or to find an excuse to provoke war again. Ghalibaf emphasized that "Iran does not accept negotiations under the shadow of threats" and stated that Iran has been prepared to "show new cards" on the battlefield over the past two weeks. (CCTV)

On April 21, Apple (AAPL.O) announced on Monday that John Ternus will succeed Tim Cook as CEO effective September 1, with Cook transitioning to the role of Executive Chairman. Ternus, who is currently Senior Vice President of Hardware Engineering, will join Apple's board of directors upon becoming CEO. Art Levinson, the current non-executive chairman, will become the lead independent director on the same day. In a press release, Apple stated, 'Cook will continue to serve as CEO throughout the summer, working closely with Ternus to ensure a smooth transition.' This marks the first CEO transition at Apple since Cook took over from Steve Jobs in 2011, shortly before Jobs' passing. Under Cook's leadership, Apple's market value has increased approximately 24 times, reaching $4 trillion at Monday's close.

On April 21, Citigroup stated that if the navigation through the Strait of Hormuz remains obstructed for another month, oil prices could rise to $110 per barrel. The company indicated that if this critical shipping route continues to be blocked for the next four weeks, the global loss of crude oil and refined product inventories due to the U.S.-Iran conflict could reach 1.3 billion barrels. Citigroup noted that even if a ceasefire extension agreement is signed this week and navigation through the strait, along with crude oil production, gradually resumes throughout May, the total global inventories of crude oil and refined products are still expected to decrease by about 900 million barrels. This includes 500 million barrels already lost and an anticipated further loss of 400 million barrels due to delayed production ramp-up and conflict-related damages. Additionally, Citigroup stated that if the disruption in the Strait of Hormuz lasts for another two months, it could result in a loss of approximately 1.7 billion barrels and push oil prices up to $130 per barrel. However, Citigroup predicts that even if the conflict ends this week, global crude oil and fuel inventories will still drop to their lowest level in eight years by the end of June. The company mentioned that rebuilding these inventories could take over two years, even if the market can quickly return to a state of oversupply of 1 million barrels per day after the conflict ends.

On April 21, Iranian Foreign Minister Amir-Abdollahian spoke with Pakistani Deputy Prime Minister and Foreign Minister Bilawal Bhutto Zardari to discuss the developments in the regional situation and issues related to the ceasefire. Amir-Abdollahian stated that the provocations by the United States and its ongoing violations of the ceasefire agreement, particularly the threats and aggression against Iranian merchant vessels, as well as its contradictory positions and threatening rhetoric, are fundamental obstacles to the continuation of the diplomatic process. He mentioned that Iran will take all factors into account before deciding how to proceed with the diplomatic process.

On April 21, major U.S. stock indices closed slightly lower, with the Nasdaq down 0.26%, ending a 13-day winning streak. The S&P 500 fell by 0.24%, while the Dow Jones Industrial Average decreased by 0.01%. Most popular tech stocks also saw declines.

On April 21, Trump posted consecutively on social media. He stated, "I am winning a war, and it is a great victory. The situation is progressing very smoothly, and our troops are performing exceptionally well. If you read those fake news outlets, like the soon-to-be-defunct New York Times, the extremely poor and disgusting Wall Street Journal, or the nearly bankrupt Washington Post (thankfully), you would even think we are losing this war. The enemy is confused because they see these media 'reports,' yet they realize their navy has been completely destroyed, their air force has retreated to more concealed runways, they have no missile defense or air defense systems, and most of their former leaders are no longer in existence (among other things, this also means regime change!). Moreover, perhaps most importantly, the sanctions— which we will not lift before reaching an 'agreement'— are utterly destroying Iran. They are losing $500 million every day, which is an unsustainable figure even in the short term. The anti-American fake news media hopes for an Iranian victory, but that cannot happen because I am in charge now! Just as these unpatriotic individuals have exhausted their meager power to oppose me in the elections, they continue to do so regarding Iran. The outcome will be the same— in fact, it already is!

On April 21, Trump stated that Democrats are doing everything they can to undermine the very favorable position the U.S. holds on the Iran issue. He noted that while World War I lasted 4 years, 3 months, and 14 days, World War II lasted 6 years and 1 day, the Korean War lasted 3 years, 1 month, and 2 days, the Vietnam War lasted 19 years, 5 months, and 29 days, and the Iraq War lasted 8 years, 8 months, and 28 days, they like to claim that I promised to defeat Iran in 6 weeks. In reality, from a military perspective, it is much faster than 6 weeks. However, I will not let them rush America into reaching a deal that could be better. I see fake news saying I am under 'pressure' to reach an agreement. That is absolutely not true! I am under no pressure (to reach a deal), although everything will happen relatively quickly! Time is not my enemy; the only thing that matters is that after 47 years, we are finally cleaning up the mess left by other presidents who lacked the courage or vision to do what needed to be done regarding Iran. We are in the process and will complete it the right way. Everything is being executed perfectly, on a scale comparable to the Venezuela operation, but this is a larger and more complex operation. The outcome will be the same.