On April 20, sources familiar with the Bank of Japan's thinking revealed that the central bank is unlikely to raise interest rates next week. The diminishing hope for a swift end to the Middle East conflict has left Japan's economic and price outlook fraught with uncertainty. Although the final decision still carries some uncertainty and will depend on the progress of peace negotiations between the U.S. and Iran, the sources indicated that the bank prefers to maintain the status quo this month to allow more time to assess the impact of the conflict. One source stated, 'Given the current level of uncertainty, the Bank of Japan may consider it feasible to hold steady this month.' Another source echoed this sentiment. A third source noted that the Bank of Japan is unlikely to raise rates, as the market has already fully priced in the possibility of no rate hike this month. These sources mentioned that even if the Bank of Japan keeps rates unchanged next week, it is likely to signal readiness to raise rates as early as June, given the escalating inflationary pressures.
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