On August 10, the onshore spot exchange rate of the RMB against the U.S. dollar rose to as high as 6.7439 during trading, marking a new high in more than three years since February 6, 2023. ICBC Asia, in its outlook on the RMB trend for the second half of the year, believes that the RMB exchange rate is likely to continue a gradual upward trend amid volatility. The main influencing factors include: first, exports are expected to maintain resilient growth in the second half of the year, with attention on the impact of geopolitical risks and tariff policies on the differentiation of export products, regional structure, and price-volume relationships; second, international capital is increasing its allocation to RMB assets, with net capital inflows supporting a stronger RMB central tendency; third, the central parity rate of the RMB against the U.S. dollar will be adjusted as circumstances dictate. The chief economist team of China Minsheng Bank pointed out that since the beginning of this year, the main factor supporting the strength of the RMB exchange rate has been the high prosperity of exports. At present, with the continuous optimization of the trade structure, the high growth rate of exports is expected to continue, and the trade surplus is also expected to remain at a high level. Overall, China's economy has demonstrated strong resilience in an environment of complex and volatile external conditions and the transition of domestic growth drivers, while the foreign exchange market operates steadily, laying a solid foundation for the RMB exchange rate to remain basically stable at a reasonable and balanced level. It is expected that in August, the RMB exchange rate will maintain a stable two-way fluctuation pattern around 6.75. (The Paper)