On October 22nd, data from CME's "FedWatch" showed that the probability of the Fed maintaining interest rates at 5.25%-5.50% in November is 99.9%, while the probability of a 25 basis point rate cut to the 5.00%-5.25% range is 0.1%.
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CME "Fed Watch": The probability of the Fed keeping interest rates unchanged in November is 99.9%
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Federal Reserve Governor Bowman said there are upside risks to inflation and the continued strength of the labor market, indicating that she may not be prepared to support a rate cut at the next meeting of U.S. central bank officials in September. She said that the progress made in reducing inflation in May and June was welcome, but inflation is still above the committee's 2% target, which is disturbing. I will remain cautious when considering adjusting the current policy stance. She also said that U.S. fiscal policy, the pressure on the real estate market from immigration, and geopolitical risks may all put upward pressure on housing prices, and the recent jump in the unemployment rate to 4.3% may exaggerate the extent of the cooling of the labor market.
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