according to Citigroup research, historical data shows that both US stocks and bonds have positive returns around the first interest rate cut. The median increase in stocks in the 50 days after the rate cut is around 5%, but there is downside risk in a hard landing scenario. Bonds also benefit from expectations and actual rate cuts, with yields typically reaching a low point around the first rate cut. The performance of the US dollar index shows a "weak first, then flat" pattern, usually weakening before a rate cut, but entering a range-bound pattern after the cut. Precious metals like gold also rise before the implementation of loose policies, but tend to perform flat after an actual rate cut, showing more of a range trading pattern. Citigroup analysts stated that these historical patterns were largely confirmed in 2024, but bond prices peaked around the first rate cut. At that time, the market priced in the rate cut aggressively, while the current cycle has a relatively mild pricing, easing concerns about the outlook for bonds.