data from Bitwise's analysis shows that holding Bitcoin for at least three years between July 17, 2010, and February 11, 2026, can reduce the probability of loss to 0.70%. The longer the holding period, the further the risk of loss decreases, with five years at 0.2% and ten years at 0%. In contrast, investors holding for less than three years face higher loss risks, such as day traders whose probability of loss reaches 47.1%.

Although Bitcoin has fallen about 50% from its peak in October 2025, currently trading at around $65,000, it is still higher than its 3 to 5-year realized price of $34,780, with investors who bought and held during this period earning about 90%. Most traders who bought in the past two years are at a loss, with a cost basis of about $101,250 for those holding 6 to 12 months, floating a loss of about 35%; and a cost basis of about $78,150 for those holding 1 to 2 years, floating a loss of about 15%.